The final international break of the season is over and our attention shifts back to the resumption of the Premier League. With ten games remaining, there is still quite a lot to play for. The title race is heating up, the relegation battle is tense, and the fight for a Champions League place will be thrilling. Aston Villa are currently the side in pole position for that fourth spot, but will they hold on to that spot with the last few games remaining?
With nine games remaining for Villa, they are currently in fourth place and three points ahead of nearest rivals, Tottenham, but with a game more played. Aston Villa last qualified for the Champions League in 1982, with the tournament then known as the ‘European Cup’. It’s been quite some time since this club has experienced the pinnacle of European football but Unai Emery’s side have reinstalled that belief this season. With an experienced European coach at the helm, Villa have looked unrecognisable compared to recent seasons.
Impact of Unai
In 14th place and suffering a deplorable 3-0 defeat to Fulham, Steven Gerrard was sacked as Villa head coach in October 2022. Unai Emery was hired as his replacement and the club saw an instant impact. Villa finished in 7th place last season and qualified for the Europa Conference League. It was a remarkable turnaround and the Villa fans would have almost laughed if you told them that they would be challenging for a Champions League place the following season.
Emery has overseen 43 games as Villa boss, winning 25, drawing 8 and losing 10. He has a win percentage of 58% and has propelled the Villans from relegation candidates to top four chasers. The former Arsenal coach has certainly revived his managerial career in England as he has answered the doubters with this terrific job.
The Spanish coach has quite the CV and this is all helpful to Villa’s hunt for the Champions League. He won the Europa League with Sevilla in his first season back in 2013. He would add two more Europa League titles to his name before becoming PSG boss. He also had a successful stint in Paris, although it was at a domestic level, and ultimately lead to his appointment at Arsenal. It was a rather unsuccessful period in his career as he underachieved with the London club and eventually was sacked in November 2019. It wasn’t until July 2020 when Emery returned to coaching and took up the mantle at Villarreal in order to revive his career. It was a successful decision as the Spanish club won the Europa League in 2021, a fourth for Emery, and reached the semi-final of the Champions League in 2022.
What has the Spaniard changed at Villa? What is obvious from the outset is that this team are well organised. Villa look defensively solid and they have become difficult to beat, especially at home. This was evident at Sevilla and Villarreal and it has now been transported into Villa Park. They are beautiful to watch as they punish any lapse in focus and transition quickly with the pace of Bailey, Watkins and Diaby. It is clear that Emery is quite distinct with his messages with his team and they know exactly what jobs they have within the starting eleven.
Unai Emery has European pedigree and has guided Aston Villa to the Conference League quarter final, where they take on Lille. His impact with the club has been exceptional and has won two manager of the month awards in the Premier League. Villa have a great coach in charge and is exactly what they need with the final push for the pursuit of the Champions League.
Wonderful Watkins
Ollie Watkins has been exceptional this season. He is one of the most in-form strikers in Europe and has been on fire in the Premier League with Villa. Currently second in the golden boot race with 16 goals, Watkins will be vital in Villa’s pursuit of a top 4 place. With European Championships in the summer, Southgate will be hoping Watkins’ goals continue as England will need a deputy striker, should Harry Kane be absent. Watkins will be determined to show that he can be relied upon and force Southgate choose him as Kane’s back up.
Watkins has been arguably Villa’s best player this season, with 16 goals and 10 assists. He currently is level with the most assist’s this season in the league which highlights his impact in the side. There is no doubt that his performances have helped Villa, his best goal scoring season has seen them have their best season in many years. Currently with an xG of 0.55, the Villa front man has been revelling under Emery and with the attacking aids of Diaby, Bailey and McGinn, there will be more chances for Watkins to chase the golden boot and guide the Villains to the promised land.
Other than goals, Watkins has been vital in Villa’s attacks with his movement. This season he’s making more of the runs and movement behind defences. According to Opta Statistics, of his 934 runs this season, 29% have been into the penalty area. Although it may not seem an important statistic, but in the wider context it is significant. For instance, Watkins’ total off-ball runs into the box of 271 is already more than he managed over entirety of the 2021-22 campaign (254). His teammates have responded well to the increased focus of Watkins’ movement; 43.2% of his off-ball runs into the box are being targeted by his team mates this season. It’s no accident that this impact has increased Watkins goal involvements and Villa’s progressive attacks.
Fixture Frenzy
With only nine games remaining for Villa, every point will be valuable for them. With three wins, two losses and a draw in their last six games, Villa will be hoping for more consistency with the final run in. One of these losses were to top four rivals Tottenham, which saw them hammered 4-0 at Villa Park. This was a setback in their progress and has allowed Tottenham to close the gap to three points, with a game in hand. Their upcoming league fixtures are testing with huge clashes against title chasing Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool.
| Date and Time | Opponent | Home/Away |
| 30th March- 5.30pm | Wolves | Home |
| 3rd April- 8.15pm | Man City | Away |
| 8th April- 3pm | Brentford | Home |
| 14th April- 4.30pm | Arsenal | Away |
| 21st April- 3pm | Bournemouth | Home |
| 27th April- 8pm | Chelsea | Home |
| 4th May- 3pm | Brighton | Away |
| 11th May- 3pm | Liverpool | Home |
| 19th May- 4pm | Crystal Palace | Away |
Aston Villa have tough fixtures facing them in the next two months. With away trips to the leagues top two and hosting Liverpool in May, it’s going to be important that they pick up three points in as many of the remaining nine as possible. Having beat Man City and Arsenal, back to back, already this season, they will have the confidence knowing that they can achieve something in these games.
The sides chasing the Villans will also have tough fixtures. Man United will have to play Arsenal and Liverpool while Spurs will also have to play the three title chasing teams. Ultimately it will be a battle to gain fourth spot and Villa will have to earn points against the sides above them to warn off those teams chasing them.
With an upcoming quarter-final looming in the Conference League, Villa will have quite a busy April. They will have seven fixtures in April and will rely on squad fitness and rotation heavily to keep the momentum going. Spurs and Man United have no European football to worry about and this may have a positive impact on the end to their season.
Fifth Champions League Spot?
Although it is unconfirmed yet, there could be a fifth team from the Premier League to qualify for the newly formatted 36 team Champions League.
An additional place will be allocated to the two countries whose clubs perform best across all UEFA competitions. Currently, Italy and Germany sit first and second but with West Ham’s dismissal of Freiburg in the Europa League, it could yet swing in the Premier League’s favour. Although there is a very good chance one of these places will be awarded to the Premier League, these sides can’t take that chance and will be focused solely on finishing in the top 4.
Aston Villa are in prime position to qualify for next season’s Champions League. Should they qualify, I don’t think you would hear any football fan begrudge them as they have deserved it with their performances this season. It is coming down to the wire and it is a place that Tottenham and Man United have been many times before. They will need their main players fit and to perform as well as they have been this season to have any hope of Champions League next season. Will they finally reach the pinnacle of European football or will it be another top six finish? Let us know what you think and where Villa will finish this season.