Is the Drop Inevitable for Sheffield United? 

On April 26th last year, Sheffield gained promotion back to the Premier League after a 2-0 win over West Brom. There was a delight amongst supporters that they could return to the summit of English football and compete once again against the elite. Fast forward nine months and the Blades currently sit in 20th position, bottom of the league and ten points off safety. In 23 games, they have accumulated ten points- 2 wins, 4 draws, 17 losses. It’s a bleak outlook for Sheffield at the moment and it’s difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel. Is the drop now inevitable for them? 

The beginning of the season was a difficult one for Sheffield as they lost their opening three league games as well as getting knocked out of the Carabao Cup on penalties to Lincoln City. September wasn’t much better with the Blades earning just 1 point in a draw with Everton, but suffering three losses including an 8-0 defeat to Newcastle. It wouldn’t be until November that Sheffield would pick up their next points and it came in back to back games with a 2-1 win over Wolves and a 1-1 draw with Brighton. These valuable 4 points could have been the turning point of Paul Heckingbottom’s season with Sheffield, but it wasn’t to be. Consecutive defeats, including a 5-0 loss to Burnley, was the straw that broke the camel’s back and he was sacked on the 5th of December. 

Chris Wilder was the man to take over and try and guide the Blades to safety. Club owner, Prince Abdullah, stated that Wilder was “the best guy on planet earth to take over the club right now in these circumstances”. Wilder previously managed the Blades from 2016 to 2021 and gained promotion to the top flite in 2019. Their first season back in the Premier League saw them finish ninth in the 19/20 season under Wilder. He brought a new system to the elite English league with overlapping centre backs in a back 3. However, he was sacked the following season and Sheffield were relegated back to the Championship. 

So was Wilder the right choice to bring back to the club, given the current situation? Since bringing their former manager back to Bramall Lane, Sheffield have 2 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses. One of those wins was a 4-0 win over Gillingham in the FA Cup third round but they later lost 5-2 to Brighton in the next round. In the league, it’s one win for Wilder since his return and points are becoming hard earned with only five points picked up since Heckingbottom’s departure. 

Sheffield United’s next 5 games are going to be critical if they will have any hope of avoiding the drop. This weekend they face Luton Town at Kenilworth Road. This is ultimately a six-pointer as Luton are one place above the relegation zone and fighting to stay up. Luton have been impressive at home this season and have recently hammered Brighton 4-0 to gain huge momentum. Sheffield have only picked up 2 points away from home this season. With this in mind, it’s not looking good for the Blades. 

The other four fixtures are against sides battling it out for a place in the top half of the league, including a home tie against league contenders Arsenal. You would imagine that Sheffield will have to pick up points somewhere in the next five games to achieve the miracle of surviving the drop. Arsenal are chasing down City and Liverpool so you would expect them to beat Sheffield at Bramall Lane.

They also welcome Brighton in their only other home fixture in the next five. Brighton are aiming for a top 6 position and see themselves only three points off Man United. They have recently lost 4-0 to Luton away so you would imagine that they won’t be treating this away fixture lightly. The Blades will travel to Wolves and Bournemouth, two sides who have been in really good form of late. Wolves have four wins in their last six while Bournemouth have only lost twice in their last six. The question remains whether Sheffield can claim any points from these next five fixtures. They will need to win at least one of these fixtures as well as pick up points at home. I can’t see them picking up a win away and they won’t beat Arsenal at home. Brighton may be the only game they could pick up something but it will need to be three points. 

While Sheffield will have to try and pick up points from somewhere, the clubs around them will also have to try and claim vital points in the race for survival. What is a positive in this scenario for Sheffield is that the clubs, who are also in this relegation scrap, face tougher fixtures than the Yorkshire club. 

These fixtures are challenging for the bottom six teams but all have shown that they can get points when their back is against the wall. Ivan Toney is back firing for Brentford, Everton are coming off the back of a good performance against Tottenham and are unbeaten in their last three, Forest have been inconsistent but they have picked up big wins, Burnley have 5 points in their last 6 games so are picking up some points, while Luton have been the most impressive of the six teams as they have won three, drawn two and lost one in their last six games. 

Sheffield have a battle on their hands and analysing the Opta Stats for the sides most likely to be relegated, Sheffield have a 99.6% chance of being relegated as things stand.  

40 points is the usual magic total to aim to survive relegation. Historically, earning 40 points would give you an 84.62% chance of survival, while totalling just 3 points less, sees your chances of survival almost half with it being a 34.62% chance of staying up. 

Sheffield have 10 points at present. They have 15 games left to play so even if they were to draw each of those 15 games they would total 25 points and their chances of survival would be 0.00%, historically speaking. In the past five seasons, the team that finished in 17th position, and just about avoided relegation, has averaged 36.8 points. 

It is not looking good for Sheffield United and looking at these facts and figures, relegation seems inevitable. Chris Wilder is going to need a miracle to keep his side in the Premier League and with the decision still to be made about Everton and Nottingham Forest’s punishment for their spending breach charges, there could be a slight chance. However, even if a point deduction is the outcome, it’s almost certain that Sheffield will be back in the Championship next season.